In this article, I will reflect on my 2021 investment journey and present my framework for 2022 and beyond. One of the key highlights of the year is that  I  started the Solvent Trader blog, which allowed me to share my investment journey and thoughts with the community. It also helped me to think clearly and clarify my thoughts along the way.  I am really happy that one of the bloggers approached me to get some of my posts published in their medium channel. In the past 6 months, I managed to publish 5 posts.  I also decided to increase …

Investment Framework for 2022 & Beyond Read More »

It has been a while since my last post as I traveled to spend time with my family. So, here are some highlights that I would like to draw your attention to: In the macro landscape, apart from taper talks, China’s Evergrande debt issue, and inflation prints, there weren’t many activities in the mainstream news. However, crypto market was the place with the most actions. It seems like we have come to an interesting juncture in the 3rd BTC halving cycle, and I think we will have one more leg up before blowing off on the top. As Druckenmiller once …

Cryptocurrency Updates Read More »

In this post, I want to discuss a particular dynamic that repeats over every ~40 years since WWI. In my belief, China is the best example of this forthcoming shift.  Russell Clark has been talking about this dynamic, and I evaluated the historical data to have a better understanding. Geopolitics is not my prime interest, but I have come to a realization that it’s quite useful in today’s world when creating investment frameworks.  As the famous quote of Mark Twain says,  “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes”, I believe having some understanding about history and geopolitics can provide …

Labour Over Capital Read More »

This is a short write-up to update some of the changes i made to my portfolio. In my May post, i have pointed out that markets are uncertain in the second half of 2021, and the reflation narrative might be shaken. I also mentioned that FEDs messaging is the key to set the sentiment for the markets. In the June FOMC meeting, FED has announced that potential rate hikes will not be until 2023. However, their stance seems to be hawkish from now to 2023. In addition, they are still not shrugging off tapering. Since my last post, the long end …

Value to Growth Rotation & the Rising Dollar Read More »

Covid pandemic created a mandate for governments around the world to take actions against climate change by reducing the environmental pollution.  Never in history before there was an urgency for a globally aligned vision to tackle climate change.   Green energy, renewables, electric batteries, electric vehicles and infrastructure are some of the hottest topics receiving significant traction in the media and investment landscape.  Today, when you ask the question in a forum -“what is the best way to play the green revolution”, following, are some of the common answers you hear from the crowd: Solar energy Wind energy Natural Gas Electric …

Carbon Credits Trade Read More »

Inflation vs disinflation is the hottest topic in the macro-space when moving into 2021.  Now, we are in the middle of 2021 and the debate has shifted to transitory inflation vs long term inflation. It is amazing to see how fast narratives can change in the macro world.  There are multiple arguments from both sides. In my opinion, regardless of being transitory or long term, what matters for an investor is to understand—where are we in the cycle, what risks are ahead of us, and how to construct portfolios to navigate the markets. In this article, I want to share …

Macro Playbook for 2021 and beyond Read More »

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